Services sector growth suggests no UK double-dip recession by Richard Driver of Caxton FX on 11-Apr-2012

In addition to last week’s strong March growth figures from the UK manufacturing and construction sectors, the services sector joined the party by coming in well above forecasts as well. This probably means that the UK has avoided a entering a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth), albeit by what is likely to be just the narrowest of margins. Indeed contrary to the OECD’s forecasts, this is what the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has argued in the past week (0.1% growth in Q1).

A second gauge of the UK manufacturing sector was more disappointing last week and has taken the edge off some of the positive sentiment surrounding the UK economy. It certainly is true that this sector has underperformed badly in the past six months and needs to pick up if the UK’s fledging recovery is to pick up any pace. The services sector cannot be the sole source of growth. In terms of important growth figures coming up this month, the 24th April preliminary Q1 GDP figure is the real focus, though next week brings the release of the MPC meeting minutes, as well as the monthly updates from the UK labour market and the retail sector.

US non-farm payrolls disappoint but no need to panic

Last Friday’s key monthly update from the US labour market revealed that half as many jobs (120k) were added in March, compared to February’s showing. This gives credence to Ben Bernanke’s refusal celebrate the US recovery from the financial crisis. The coming week is noticeably quieter on the data front, with Friday afternoon’s US consumer sentiment figure (forecast to improve) likely to be a highlight.

The dollar struggled a little on the back of Friday’s US jobs figure but it has since recovered. These data will encourage greater caution in the market but it alone won’t trigger large scale revisions of US dollar bets. Global stocks and commodity prices are in decline at present, which is keeping the safe-haven dollar in pretty robust demand, though it is having to wait for significant gains against the pound.

Spanish bond yields on the rise

Nerves surrounding the Spanish and overall eurozone debt situation are clearly on the rise, as shown by the general risk-off tone to present trading conditions. Spain’s Economy Minister today refused to rule out the need for a Spanish financial rescue. PM Rajoy has announced a further €10bn of budget cuts but as Spanish 10-year bond yields climb towards 6.0%, it is evident that market nerves are on the up.

If concerns continue to heat up, the ECB may be persuaded to cut interest rates again to restore sentiment, which is unlikely to be euro-positive. At the very least, an exit from the ECB’s current liquidity measures (monetary easing) is unlikely to come soon; Draghi indicated as much last week. The euro looks poised for a move lower.

End of week forecast
GBP / EUR	1.2050
GBP / USD	1.5750
EUR / USD	1.3025
GBP / AUD	1.5550

Sterling was the third best performing currency against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2012 and it continues to hold up pretty well. GBP / USD’s current levels of $1.5850 remain a good level at which to buy US dollars. Against the euro, sterling is also performing very well. GBP / EUR is trading not too far away from a 19-month high, though it could suffer a short-term downward correction if it fails to push higher from here.

Richard Driver is a Currency Market Analyst with Caxton FX and can be contacted via: www.caxtonfx.com

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